Singapore, India, and the UAE are emerging as central nodes in a trade system that has abandoned old patterns. A recent analysis indicates these nations are prospering as trade splits into regional alliances, digital networks, and networks built for resilience.
Trade is not returning to its previous state
The Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture report, launched in Singapore on Wednesday, 15 July, states that trade is being transformed by unpredictable tariffs, weakened international institutions, and advances in artificial intelligence. Over 80% of the 130 senior leaders interviewed foresee slow, uneven growth in the next one to three years, with only 4% expecting optimal conditions.
Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and CEO of DMCC, stated that developments have unfolded more rapidly and severely than anticipated. “The impact has been swifter, more intense, and more profound than nearly anyone predicted,” he noted, citing sudden tariff changes, accelerated AI adoption, and disruptions in shipping, energy, and food security.
The findings, drawn from 12 global discussions, reveal that trade no longer operates under a single global framework. Instead, it is being reconstructed through bilateral agreements, regional partnerships, and strategic nations that serve as connectors between competing systems.
Strategic nations assume new roles
Singapore, India, the UAE, and Vietnam are among the countries capitalizing on this transition. They are not aligning with any single bloc but are establishing themselves as neutral points for redirected trade. The report observes that these nations are filling gaps left by weakened multilateral institutions.
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Bin Sulayem explained that trade leaders have abandoned expectations of reverting to pre-2020 conditions. “They are not waiting for the old system to return. They are constructing something new.” That new system is already visible in Asia, where trade between developing economies now represents 35% of global trade, exceeding exchanges between advanced economies.
For ASEAN, this evolution carries significant weight. The region is no longer merely a low-cost manufacturing hub. It is becoming a critical center for semiconductors, AI hardware, digital services, and logistics. By 2024, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam collectively drove nearly 30% of global semiconductor export growth, positioning ASEAN as a leading AI manufacturing ecosystem.
The analysis also describes a shift from the “China + 1” model to “China + many.” Businesses are spreading operations across multiple markets to minimize exposure to tariffs and geopolitical risks. U.S. imports from Vietnam have increased 345% since 2014, while those from India climbed 94%. In contrast, imports from China fell by 5%.
This shift has made India and the UAE leading destinations for new investment worldwide. For Southeast Asia, it is creating openings in manufacturing, electronics, and data infrastructure. The report highlights that AI-related products—including semiconductors, servers, and data center equipment—grew at five times the rate of other goods in early 2025. Though they represented 15% of global trade volume,
If current trends continue, the next phase of trade will emphasize digital and service-based exchanges. ASEAN’s upcoming Digital Economy Framework Agreement, planned for 2026, could further unite the region’s digital economy.
Singapore stands out in this transformation. The city-state combines logistics, finance, digital trade policies, and technology adoption, serving as an example of what the report terms the “middle power strategy.” It has also influenced digital trade frameworks through agreements with the European Union and the United Kingdom.
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The report does not forecast a collapse in trade. It argues instead that trade is evolving in nature. Growth is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 before rebounding to 2.6% in 2027, but the sources of that growth are changing. AI-related products, services, and regional corridors will drive the expansion.
Businesses in Asia have received a clear signal.
Disruption is permanent. Companies that prioritize diversification, digitalization, and regulatory flexibility will outperform those waiting for stability. For ASEAN, the chance exists to move beyond benefiting from redirected networks and instead shape the next trade order.
This change extends beyond economics. It reflects a broader realignment where strategic nations gain influence by providing stability in an unstable environment. Their long-term success may hinge on balancing neutrality with the pressures of competing blocs.
The data indicates trade growth will remain uneven, but its centers of power are shifting. The challenge lies in whether these new hubs can maintain their momentum or if another upheaval will demand further adaptation.
